The analysis by the National Chamber of Italian Fashion points to the uncertainty of US tariffs and foresees only a partial recovery
At today’s press conference, the National Chamber of Italian Fashion presented a report on the trends and forecasts of the fashion industry for 2025.
In the first half of 2025, the Italian fashion industry recorded a negative economic performance. There was a widespread decline in turnover, exports, and consumer confidence. The primary cause of this contraction is attributed to the uncertainty generated by the United States’ announcement of new trade tariffs. The impact was immediate, even before their actual implementation.
Negative performance and triggering factors
The sector’s total turnover fell by -4.3% compared to the same period in 2024. The downturn affected both the core segments (textiles, clothing, leather goods, footwear: -4.5%) and the “related” ones (jewellery, eyewear, cosmetics: -3.5%). The latter had partially offset losses in the previous year. At the same time, exports dropped by -5.5% in the first five months of the year. Jewellery was particularly hard hit, both towards the US and intermediary markets (e.g., Turkey). This climate of uncertainty also weakened Italian households’ confidence, leading to persistently negative retail sales for clothing and footwear.
Price trends and trade dynamics
Wholesale prices stabilised in the core sectors after the declines of 2024. Conversely, they rose in cosmetics (+3.2%) and jewellery (+9.1%). At the consumer level, inflation for clothing and footwear (+0.8%) remained contained and below the national average. While exports decreased, imports increased (+5.2% in the core sectors, +2.6% in the related ones), with a strong rebound in flows from China (+19.3%). The trade balance, although positive at €12 billion, shrank by €3.1 billion compared to 2024.
Trends and forecasts for 2025
Forecasts for the rest of the year assume a partial adaptation by companies and a consolidation of the macroeconomic scenario. The International Monetary Fund slightly revised global growth estimates upward, while the impact of US tariffs proved less severe than initially expected. However, uncertainties remain over consumption in China and the Euro area.
The central forecast for the 2025 turnover of the Italian fashion industry is a contraction of -3.6%. This outlook could range between -4% in the event of worsening trade tensions and no recovery in China, or -3% if China recovers and monetary conditions become more favourable.
Final thoughts
In conclusion, the data from the National Chamber of Italian Fashion on trends and forecasts for 2025 paint the picture of a struggling sector. The industry’s excessive dependence on foreign geopolitical dynamics, such as US tariff policies, reveals a deep strategic vulnerability. The industry must navigate not only an uncertain economy but also a dangerous gap between its image as a flawless sector and the harsh reality of the numbers. Recovery, though forecasted, will not be automatic: it will require more than adaptation; it will demand a redesign of value chains and brand narratives for an era of new protectionism and instability.
The data are not just numbers; they represent an invitation to a collective moment of reflection.