Can we change course? Can humans live in balance with nature?
July 24th marks Earth Overshoot Day—the date when humanity’s demand for ecological resources exceeds what Earth can regenerate in a year. From this point on, we’re drawing down nature’s capital—robbing future generations to maintain the present.
This symbolic threshold arrives earlier each year, highlighting our deepening ecological debt. In the 1970s, Overshoot Day fell in December. Today, it comes in late July. Wealthier nations overshoot at alarming rates: the U.S. consumes resources as if it had five Earths; Italy’s ecological footprint is 2.9 times what its ecosystems can replenish.
The path back: five levers for change
According to the Global Footprint Network, solutions exist to move the date—and they hinge on systemic changes, not small tweaks. The organisation promotes five key strategies, encapsulated in the campaign #MoveTheDate:
- Energy transition: Replacing fossil fuels with renewables could shift Overshoot Day by 93 days.
- Circular economies: Reducing waste and redesigning production systems to close material loops.
- Food system overhaul: Cutting global meat consumption by 50% could push the date back 17 days.
- Green cities: Rethinking mobility, housing, and infrastructure to reduce urban footprints.
- Policy shifts: Implementing binding treaties to protect forests, oceans, and carbon sinks.
The good news? If we manage to push back Overshoot Day by just five days per year, we could return to living within Earth’s means by 2050.
Rupert Read on reversing ecological overshoot
But is it still possible?
Rupert Read, environmental philosopher and former spokesperson for Extinction Rebellion, is sceptical of techno-optimistic solutions. He aligns with the “deep adaptation” movement, which argues that ecological collapse is now likely—and that instead of relying solely on mitigation, we must prepare for radical societal transformation.
From Read’s perspective:
- “Too little, too late” – Even drastic emissions cuts may not suffice, as we may have already triggered tipping points like permafrost thaw and Amazon dieback.
- Growth paradox – Infinite economic growth is incompatible with planetary boundaries.
- False hope risk – Frameworks like #MoveTheDate may underestimate the slow pace of actual system change, especially given the inertia of CO₂ in the atmosphere.
In short, Read contends that overshoot isn’t just a policy failure—it’s the symptom of a deeper crisis: a civilisation fundamentally at odds with ecology.
Read’s alternative: Transformative adaptation
Read’s vision focuses on resilience, degrowth, and radical localisation. He argues that rather than saving an unsustainable system, we need to build a new one—one grounded in ecological humility.
Key pillars of this approach include:
- Degrowth – Shifting from GDP obsession to prioritising human well-being and scaling back consumption to within planetary limits.
- Co-liberation – Challenging the exploitative logics of capitalism and colonialism that view nature as disposable.
- Radical localism – Empowering communities to grow food, restore ecosystems, and reclaim agency—starting now, without waiting for governments to act.
In an essay co-authored with Caroline Lucas, Read urges a ground-up approach to adaptation:
“Begin, in other words, not with an abstraction but with direct experience, and with quality of life. Climate action can become popular when people understand its benefits in the terms of their own communities, and their own lives. For the climate movement, this means shifting adaptation and resilience-building from the margins to the centre of our strategic message. This is about more local, nature-friendly food-growing that people can have a stake in: for instance, through planting fruiting tree and bush varieties that are able to cope with higher summer temperatures.”
They call for climate popularism—a politics that is local, collaborative, and hopeful:
“Despite stereotypes about voters who can only be won over by a politics of fury, research shows that an ‘exhausted majority’ is tiring of endless aggression and division. They seek something they can positively believe in, a programme that is local, collaborative and respectful. A depolarising wave of action that mobilises communities’ instinctive protective instincts could really be… popular. And that is climate popularism.”
The verdict: Possible, but not probable
Technically, reversing ecological overshoot is still possible—if humanity moves at wartime speed. But politically, Read believes it is improbable without unprecedented global mobilisation and a reimagining of what progress means.
Earth Overshoot Day: The bottom line
Earth Overshoot Day is a warning. Yes, we could move the date back five days a year and restore ecological balance by 2050. But Read’s work reminds us: this will take more than innovation. It demands a cultural, political, and moral reckoning.
The choice before us is not simply between green tech and collapse. It’s between:
- Clinging to a broken system, or
- Building one that recognises humanity as part of, not separate from, the natural world.
In the end, the future belongs to those who stop pretending.
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